今天早晨，联合广场风险投资企业的费雷德·威尔逊先生，一个有着17年风险投资经历的风险资本家（投资圈里最著名的32个投资项目中，有20%费雷德·威尔逊先生参与其中），向世人揭露了他的投资“失败率”。他已经有11个交易（占他总投资的40%）得到了5倍以上的回报，远远高于其他风险投资者的平均回报率。
相比大部分风险资本家，威尔逊先生愿意在他的博客上与大家轻松地谈论一些投资话题。但是所有的风险资本家必须坦白他们的失败率。毕竟，衡量绩效应该关注风险资本家和创业者两方面，而不是仅仅关注投资者本人。失败是成功之母，从失败中可以学到比成功中更多的东西。威尔逊先生很乐意与大家分享他从一次次失败中得到的经验。为了证明一个项目是一个非常差的主意，他可能说：
一个相当好的主意有时却是错误的，需要花费巨额资金，而花钱的速度已经超出了我们的预计，它无法适应企业财务上的变化。
在我的个人职业生涯里，我考虑过的26家企业实现或有效实现我的目标，其中的17家企业当我投入资金或者我收回资金时完全或部分实现商业改制。这意味着你有2/3的机会可以重新投资你的企业如果你找到风险资金的话，或者你可以考虑卖掉企业。
很明显，对我来说，大部分撤回的风险资金不意味失败，因为商业计划有缺陷。根据我的经验，至少我们收回的商业计划中有2/3是有瑕疵的。
大部分的风险资金之所以被撤回，是因为在我们没有制定出完美无缺的投资计划之前，风险资金是用来衡量投资计划成功与否的标志。而这个成功率反过来又是影响商业计划被实施的几率。
我们已经听到了太多的精湛的哲学理论，但是需要忍受重复。
你能从你的一次次的投资失败中得到什么？公开地评论你的得失吧。
VCs: What’s Your Failure Rate?
50 Commentsby Erick Schonfeld on November 30, 2007
This morning, Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures discloses to the world his failure rate as a venture capitalist of 17 years (20 percent over 32 investments, which is enviable in VC circles). He’s also had 11 deals (40 percent) with 5X+ returns, so it more than balances out.
Wilson is more at ease talking to the world (through his blog) than most VCs. But all venture capitalists should have to disclose their personal failure rates. After all, measuring performance should go both ways between VCs and entrepreneurs, not to mention venture investors. Sometimes, you can learn a lot more from failure than from success. Wilson shares what he’s learned from his failures. Either a business turns out to be a dumb idea, he says, or, more likely:
It was a decent idea but directionally incorrect, it was hugely overfunded, the burn rate was taken to levels way beyond reason, and it became impossible to adapt the business in a financially viable manner.
. . . Of the 26 companies that I consider realized or effectively realized in my personal track record, 17 of them made complete transformations or partial transformations of their businesses between the time we invested and the time we sold. That means there a 2/3 chance you’ll have to significantly reinvent your business between the time you take a venture capital investment and when you exit your business.
So it’s pretty clear to me that most venture backed investments don’t fail because the business plan was flawed. In my experience at least 2/3 of all business plans we back are flawed.
Most venture backed investments fail because the venture capital is used to scale the business before the correct business plan is discovered. That scale/burn rate becomes the cancer that kills the business.
We’ve all heard variations of that be-nimble-or-die philosophy, but it bears repeating.
What have you learned from your business failures? Comments, as always, are open.
Fred Wilson
Companies: Etsy, Union Square Ventures
Fred Wilson began his career in venture capital in 1987. He has focused exclusively on information technology investments for the past 17 years…In 1996, Fred co-founded Flatiron Partners. While at Flatiron, Fred was responsible for 14 investments… Learn More
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